Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
